SMF Analysis Highlights Public Backing for Machine Games Duty Increase on High-Street Slots

The Social Market Foundation released polling data together with its analysis on 29 June 2026 showing that 43 percent of the public supports doubling the Machine Games Duty rate from 20 percent to 40 percent on Category B £2-a-spin machines located in adult gaming centres and casinos; the same figures indicate that such a change could generate between £275 million and £458 million in additional annual revenue on top of the existing £600 million collected from the duty. Current rules apply the 20 percent rate across these high-stake terminals while leaving lower-stake machines in pubs untouched, and the SMF proposal keeps that distinction intact so that only the £2-a-spin devices in dedicated venues would face the higher levy. Observers note that the extra receipts would arrive at a time when several political figures have already voiced concerns about the concentration of gambling outlets on high streets, and one such figure, Andy Burnham, has previously criticised the sector’s effects on vulnerable communities.

Details of the Proposed Duty Adjustment

Category B machines represent the higher-stake offering permitted in adult gaming centres and casinos under existing licensing, and the SMF calculation applies the doubled rate solely to those terminals while the 20 percent rate would continue for machines found in pubs and other lower-stake locations. The polling sample captured national sentiment on this targeted increase, and the resulting revenue range of £275 million to £458 million rests on assumptions about player volumes and machine numbers remaining broadly stable after any rate change.

The Guardian report covering the release explains that the duty applies to gross gaming yield from the machines, so an increase from 20 percent to 40 percent would directly scale the tax collected from each pound wagered on the affected devices. Because the proposal leaves pub-based machines at the current rate, the modelling avoids any projected impact on those venues and focuses the potential uplift on adult gaming centres and casinos that operate the £2-a-spin terminals.

Political Context and Timing

Andy Burnham has in the past highlighted the presence of high-stake machines in deprived areas, and the SMF release notes that the polling support emerges against that backdrop of ongoing political discussion. Although the report does not forecast specific legislative timelines, the figures are presented as available for consideration should a future administration decide to act on similar concerns about community effects. The June 2026 publication date places the data in the period leading into August 2026, when further fiscal planning discussions are expected to intensify ahead of the next parliamentary session.

Revenue estimates in the SMF analysis assume that the duty increase would apply uniformly once implemented, and the lower end of the £275 million–£458 million band reflects more conservative volume projections while the upper end incorporates higher utilisation figures drawn from recent industry returns. Those projections sit alongside the current £600 million baseline, producing a combined total that would represent a substantial rise in the contribution from this particular segment of the machine market.

Scope and Limitations of the Polling

The 43 percent support figure comes from the SMF-commissioned survey that asked respondents specifically about raising the duty on Category B machines in adult gaming centres and casinos; the same survey did not extend the question to machines in other settings. Because the proposal explicitly spares lower-stake equipment in pubs, the polling language framed the change as applying only to the higher-stake terminals described as “slot sheds” in some coverage. The report therefore presents the public backing as conditional on that targeted application rather than a blanket increase across all gaming machines.

Data collection for the polling occurred prior to the June publication, and the SMF analysis cross-references the support level with existing tax receipts to arrive at the revenue range. No adjustments for behavioural change among players appear in the headline figures, although the report notes that actual yields would depend on post-implementation patterns. Those who have examined similar duty adjustments in other jurisdictions observe that outcomes can vary once operators respond to the new rate structure.

Conclusion

The Social Market Foundation’s June 2026 release supplies both the 43 percent public support statistic and the £275 million–£458 million revenue estimate for a doubled Machine Games Duty on Category B machines, while preserving the existing treatment of lower-stake terminals in pubs. The analysis ties the data to prior statements from figures such as Andy Burnham on community impacts, and the figures remain available for any future policy discussion without prescribing specific outcomes. The Guardian report containing the original coverage provides the full polling breakdown and modelling assumptions for those seeking further detail on the numbers presented.